Google can now predict the future
Earlier this year we talked about the Google Insights for Search tool. This can show you the trend for people searching with a particular keyword on Google, in all countries of the world. Google Insights for Search also lets you compare two or more search terms to see not only their trends, but which is the most popular. The data can stretch all the way back to 2004.
Google has now unveiled a new version of Google Insights which not only tells you about past trends of keywords, but predicts their future too. The intention of the tool is to give advice to advertisers about how much money to set aside for AdWords paid-search advertising, by predicting not only what people will search for, but how often too.
This means that the graphs produced by Google insights show search trends not only including past information but with future results too.
Google say they can do this by analysing past search query information. Google found that search query trends in more than half the most popular search terms are predictable from year to year.
There are some types of keywords, such as those in food and drink, travel and health, that are really easy to predict, tied as they are to particular sporting events and holidays. Other keywords, particularly those to do with social networks and other newly emerging topics, are more problematic
Google have also produced a new map which helps to visualise the way searches change as time goes by, in different regions. Google hopes that advertisers will use the tool to make better judgments about where to target their ads, and how much money to spend on paid search advertising.
For more information about Google insights, watch the Google video below.
Being about to predict when there are peaks and troughs in search volumes helps you make sure that your advertising is timed right. If you sell Valentines’ day cards, then it’s important to make sure you’re maximising your budget when people are actually buying cards, rather than just the day before Valentines day. Here’s an image from Google insights showing the search trend for Valentines day cards:
As you can see, you need to make sure your campaigns are in full flow on 11th February, to give yourself the best chance of maximising Valentines’ day card sales.
Google have admitted that it could not make perfect predictions about the future, but that they were continuing to work on more advanced forecasting models to ‘close the gap between reality and the future’.
Have a go with the new Google insights and let us know what you think.